California politics just took a sledgehammer to the status quo. If you’ve been following the race to replace Gavin Newsom, you know the board just got wiped clean. Eric Swalwell, the once-presumed Democratic heavyweight, didn’t just stumble; he fell off a cliff. Following serious allegations of sexual misconduct, Swalwell suspended his campaign and announced his resignation from Congress. Now, the remaining candidates are meeting for their first major debate in Sacramento, and the vibe has shifted from a coronation to a street fight.
The June primary is only weeks away. Voters are staring down a ballot with over 60 names, but only a handful actually matter. This isn't just about who can give the best stump speech anymore. It's about who can survive the vacuum Swalwell left behind without getting sucked into the scandal’s blast radius.
The Democratic scramble to fill the void
With Swalwell out, the Democratic field is a mess of competing egos and fragmented bases. For months, he soaked up the oxygen and the endorsements. Now, that support is up for grabs. You’d think there’d be a clear successor, but the latest Emerson College polling shows a three-way split between billionaire Tom Steyer, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter.
Steyer is doing what Steyer does—spending money. He’s pouring millions into ads to frame himself as the only "serious" adult in the room. Becerra, meanwhile, is leaning hard on his record of suing the Trump administration over 100 times. He’s banking on the idea that California Democrats want a fighter who knows how to use the legal system as a weapon.
Then there’s Katie Porter. She’s famous for her whiteboard and her ability to make corporate executives squirm. But fame doesn't always translate to primary votes. She has slipped in recent polls, and she needs this debate to prove she can handle the "big chair" in Sacramento, not just a committee seat in D.C. If she can't capture the women voters who are understandably furious about the Swalwell allegations, her path to November looks incredibly thin.
Republicans smell blood in the water
While Democrats bicker, the GOP is having a moment. In a deep blue state like California, Republicans usually don't have much to cheer about. But the "top-two" primary system is a weird beast. If the Democratic vote stays split six ways to Sunday, we could legitimately see two Republicans advance to the general election.
Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco aren't playing nice, though. They’re currently leading the pack, but they’re also busy tearing each other apart.
- Steve Hilton: The former Fox News host and populist strategist. He’s running on a platform of dismantling the "Sacramento machine." He’s got the name recognition and the polish.
- Chad Bianco: The Riverside County Sheriff. He’s the "law and order" candidate, and he isn’t afraid to be loud about it. He’s positioning himself as the only one who can actually fix the crime and homelessness crisis.
At the Sacramento forum, Hilton wasted no time calling the Democratic party a "chaos" machine. He’s not entirely wrong. When your frontrunner implodes weeks before the vote, it doesn't scream "stability."
The issues nobody wants to talk about
The scandal is a distraction from the fact that California is, quite honestly, struggling. The candidates love to talk about "values," but they’re avoiding the hard data. The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) recently dropped some numbers that should make every candidate sweat.
California has seen a net loss of 1.3 million people since 2020. People are leaving because they can't afford to live here. Gas is too expensive. Power bills are insane. Groceries are a luxury. And let’s not even get started on the insurance crisis or the budget deficit that’s deep in the red.
During the debate, expect the Democrats to talk about "universal healthcare" and "protecting democracy." Expect the Republicans to talk about "tax cuts" and "clearing the camps." But watch closely to see if anyone actually offers a math-based solution for the $73 billion budget gap. So far, the silence on the specifics has been deafening.
Who actually benefits from the chaos
If you’re looking for a dark horse, keep an eye on San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. He’s been lingering in the single digits, but he has the backing of Silicon Valley’s heavy hitters. With Swalwell gone, the "moderate" lane is wide open. Mahan is younger, tech-savvy, and hasn't been in the D.C. or Sacramento bubble as long as the others.
The real winner might actually be the "Undecided" column. Nearly 23% of voters still don't know who they’re picking. That’s a massive chunk of the electorate that usually doesn't tune in until they see the first televised debate. This Sacramento meeting is their first real look at the post-Swalwell world.
Stop waiting for a savior
The reality of California politics is that no single person is going to fix the housing market or the high-speed rail disaster overnight. The Swalwell scandal proved that putting all your eggs in one "rising star" basket is a recipe for disappointment.
If you want to make an informed choice, stop looking at the TV ads. Look at the voting records. Look at who is funding these campaigns.
Next steps for California voters:
- Check your registration status immediately. The primary is June 2.
- Watch the full replay of the Sacramento debate—don't just settle for the 30-second clips on social media.
- Look up the PPIC reports on state standards for education and infrastructure. See which candidate's plan actually addresses the 49% English proficiency rate in our schools.
The race is wide open. Don't let the noise of the scandal keep you from seeing the policy failures hiding behind it. Use your vote to demand a plan, not just a personality.
